Demand for heavy trucks will be "rising for a long time" in the coming years
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Looking back at the 2005 heavy truck market, the downturn in the market was only a phased one. Some of the factors that led to the decline in sales volume in the heavy truck market will be gradually eliminated in the next year or two, and the industry is expected to rebound. It is expected that with the gradual improvement of the macro-policy environment and the strong investment in the “Eleventh Five-Year†plan, the heavy-duty truck market will regain a new and relatively stable growth period within three to five years.
The development of China's auto industry has always been closely linked with the national macro-control policies. The following five macro-controls since China’s reform and opening up have been summarized as a table.
It is worth noting that the impact of these five macro-controls on the autos has really only had a fifth impact on the car market, that is, in 2004, the remaining four times saw a contraction in the truck (including heavy truck) market. As a means of production, the dependence of the truck market on macroeconomic policies is evident.
As the impact of the country’s macro-control has gradually departed, the gradual development of new investment projects, preliminary estimates, after 2008, China's heavy truck market will usher in a new consumer boom. It is estimated that by the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†in 2010, the demand for heavy trucks will reach around 500,000 vehicles.
In the coming years, “heavy fuel consumption, high power, heavy-duty, multi-axis†and other heavy trucks that meet the requirements of the policy and market requirements will be sought after by the market.
Judging from the sales situation in 2005, under the influence of both policies and oil prices, the trend of heavy-duty trucks moving toward large tonnage is very obvious. Both the whole vehicle and semi-trailer tractors have smaller tonnage, and the year-on-year decline is higher; The bigger, the higher the year-on-year increase. In addition, the new "Automobile Industry Development Policy" focuses more on energy conservation. Therefore, high-end heavy-duty trucks with low fuel consumption, large tonnage, high power, and suitable for professional transportation will be the focus of development in the coming years.
Aggravation of the tractor's role
As the tractors are expected to grow in the market, the tractors will further replace the flat-laden trucks as the main force for the long-distance transportation market for heavy cargo such as coal, steel, cement, sand and containers, and the large-capacity heavy trucks will have a lot of room for development. . At present, the heavy truck market is in the period of adjustment. The number of tractors in the sales structure will increase, flatbed trucks will gradually decrease, tractors and dump trucks will still have a large proportion, and power will be upgraded with regulations and efficiency.
Special car market is optimistic
In the coming years, special vehicles will serve a wide range of areas in the national economy of our country. From the perspective of the development of the foreign automobile industry, the development trend of the specialization of trucks is quite obvious. In the 1970s and 1980s, the amount of dedicated vehicles held by major developed countries accounted for about 50% of the total amount of trucks, which has now increased to 70% to 80%, while China’s current ratio is relatively low, roughly 30. Around %, it can be seen that the development prospect of China's special-purpose vehicles is very broad. Looking at the national "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", we put forward an encouragement policy for the development of special-purpose vehicles. In the future, certain varieties and markets of special-purpose vehicles will have more room for development, and their position in trucks will continue to increase.
China's heavy-duty vehicle market will enter the "quality luxury" era
Before June 2003, domestic heavy-duty truck products were basically in the "common and practical" stage (users only paid attention to the fact that they were durable, they did not pay attention to the appearance and interior, etc.). From the second half of 2003 to the end of 2004, they entered the "comfort type". At the stage (users began to pay attention to appearance, interior, comfort, etc.), after entering the year 2005, domestic heavy-duty truck products have clearly entered the "quality luxury" stage (users began to pay attention to grades, quality, reliability, new technologies, etc.). In the second half of last year, major manufacturers successively launched their own high-end products, among which Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile launched “Ba Longâ€, FAW liberation launched “Aoweiâ€, Jinan CNHTC launched “HOWOâ€, and Shaanxi Zhongqi launched “DeLongâ€. Auman launched the "Intercontinental Edition" series, Chongqing Hongyan launched the "big Kang" and so on, these products in terms of quality, configuration, or grade compared with the previous product has a significant increase.