· Crude oil is difficult to break the floor price of domestic refined oil price adjustment or continue to sleep

At 24:00 on February 29, the time window for China's refined oil price adjustment will come again. However, since the “floor price” of 40 US dollars per barrel, the international oil price has fluctuated around 30 US dollars per barrel, far lower than the price adjustment floor line. Therefore, the industry expects that the domestic round of domestic refined oil price adjustment will continue to “sleep”. "status.

According to data released by the Xinhua News Agency's oil price system on February 26, the average price change rate of crude oil on February 25 was 3.46%. February 26 is the ninth working day of the pricing cycle.

The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on January 13 this year, decided to improve the formation mechanism of refined oil pricing, set the lower limit of domestic refined oil control, and establish a risk reserve for oil price regulation. When the domestic crude oil price of the domestic refined oil price is lower than 40 US dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil price will not be lowered.

The international oil price, which has shrunk by 70% or 80%, is already at the bottom level. However, it is still going to short the market and the market is still divided. Recently, the international oil price volatility has intensified significantly. The situation of more than 5% and 6% in a single day has frequently appeared, but the price level is still around $30 per barrel.

In the opinion of experts, the current international oil price has increased the turmoil, and the speculative fund’s “Chao Qin Chu Chu” has played a role in fueling the situation. Observing the recent changes in the positions of international speculative funds, it can be seen that the mentality of speculative funds is not stable and frequently “faces”.

According to statistics released by the US Commodity Futures Management Commission, from the week of January 12 to the week of February 16, the net long positions of speculative funds in the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures increased by 25.8% for two consecutive weeks, followed by consecutive Three weeks down, down 22.7%. The current net speculative fund's net long positions fell to 159,000 hands, a low of nearly four years.

Ma Yu, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, believes that the current situation of oversupply of international crude oil is difficult to alleviate. In addition, the economic trend of the major oil-consuming countries such as the United States is weak. It is expected that the international oil price trend will continue to be under pressure in the short term, and it is difficult to stand on the barrel in a short time. Above the US dollar, under the “floor price” policy, domestic oil prices are still difficult to adjust in the short term.

Yang Xun, an analyst of Anxun's refined oil industry, said that during this round of refined oil price adjustment period, although Russia and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement to freeze the daily output of crude oil in January, the US crude oil inventories continued to hit new highs and suppressed the fundamentals. International oil prices continue to hover around $30 a barrel. The price is still far from the “floor price” of US$40, so the domestic gasoline and diesel retail price adjustment will encounter “three consecutive stops” on February 29.

Although subject to the constraints of the floor line, the domestic refined oil price adjustment has not been adjusted for more than a month, but the wholesale market in the real market has been extremely hot. According to Zhongyu Information Monitoring, during the recent round of refined oil price adjustment period, the average price of National Standard No. 93 gasoline and No. 0 diesel oil fell by 51 yuan and 132 yuan respectively; the average price of National No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 diesel wholesale price They dropped 85 yuan and 206 yuan respectively.

Yang Dan believes that in the domestic refined oil wholesale market, after the Lantern Festival, infrastructure, factories and other industries will continue to be in a state of holiday, and diesel demand is expected to gradually pick up later. In addition, after a long period of inventory consumption, the downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for replenishment, and the wholesale market price has slowed down or slowed down. In terms of gasoline, as the festive atmosphere gradually dissipated, the vehicle travel rate returned to normal, gasoline demand gradually declined and returned to normal. It is expected that the price will be difficult to support in the later period, and there is a fear of a downward trend.

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