For China's new energy vehicles, the subsidies that have been pulling forward in the past few years have begun to loosen.

Since January 1 this year, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have undergone tremendous changes in the quiet. After accounting, the overall subsidy has been reduced by 40%, and the subsidy amount has been reduced by up to 44,000 yuan. At the critical moment of the promotion of new energy vehicles, such a reduction in subsidies may become the biggest problem in the promotion of new energy vehicles.

The subsidy has increased

The subsidy for new energy vehicles in China consists of two parts: state subsidies (country subsidies) + local subsidies (land subsidies). In these two subsidies, the amount of state subsidies is fixed, and the land subsidies are determined by localities. The difference is slightly different, but most of them are floating up and down according to the ratio of the state supplement and the land patch 1:1.

Take Beijing as an example. In 2016, the subsidy will be paid according to the ratio of national supplement and land supplement 1:1. The specific amount of state compensation is shown in the following table:

According to the latest new energy vehicle subsidy policy, in 2017, the state subsidy will retreat 20% according to the plan, and the land supplement rule shall not be higher than 50% of the state subsidy. At this time, the amount of the state subsidy becomes like this:

2017 calculated according to the allowances, hybrid car models back slope 05000-25500 yuan range, less volatile; electric car model in the vast majority of the total local subsidies to reduce the magnitude of the country up to 40% greater impact.

In other words, the new energy vehicles that originally subsidized 110,000 yuan will cost 44,000 yuan more to purchase this year. For new energy vehicles with subsidized prices below 300,000 yuan, such huge price increases will inevitably affect some consumption. The choice of car purchase, especially at this critical moment of vigorously promoting new energy vehicles.

Earlier we were able to hear a saying: 2015 is the first year of new energy vehicles, because in that year, the sales of new energy vehicles have achieved unprecedented breakthroughs, but then the "cheat" incident, the new energy vehicle The bubble of false prosperity has been smashed, and the prospects for the promotion of new energy vehicles have also been cast a shadow.

Unexpectedly, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2016 also achieved a rapid increase. According to the statistics of the Association, the total sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in January-December 2016 was 320,000 units, an increase of 84%. Among them, pure electric vehicles sold 240,000 units, an increase of 116%; plug-in hybrid sales of 80,000 units, an increase of 26%. In a sense, 2016 is the first year of new energy vehicles.

Driven by such a good momentum, with the centralized listing of more new energy vehicles, 2017 will be an excellent opportunity to promote new energy vehicles, but the acceleration of subsidies will undoubtedly become a new energy vehicle market with high speed. Cool down.

The reduction of subsidies of up to 44,000 yuan, whether for consumers or car companies, is not a small expense, then who is responsible for this cost?

Car companies can not cut prices?

According to the experience of subsidies to retreat in the past, it is generally at this time that car companies will “go out” and self-sufficient to smooth out the extra price of this part, like the purchase of small displacement cars of 1.6L and below that have been implemented since this year. According to the 7.5% levy policy, the tax is 2.5 percentage points higher than last year's 5%. Many car companies have decided to give preferential subsidies at the terminal, so that the consumer's purchase price is maintained at 5%.

However, the new energy vehicles are very dependent on the subsidy policy. If the subsidy is reduced by 40% and the "price difference" of up to 44,000 yuan is fully borne by the enterprise, it is undoubtedly a big burden.

According to the author's understanding, only one company of Beiqi New Energy has issued a corporate subsidy announcement. Before the Lunar New Year, the guaranteed price of Beiqi New Energy was the same as last year. Other car companies have no relevant subsidy policy, and BYD believes that insiders disclose to the author. In November, BYD will launch a plan for unsubsidized urban electric vehicles, but it is not convenient to disclose specific plans.

It can be seen that although Beiqi New Energy said that prices will not rise until the Spring Festival, it is still unclear what will happen to the price after the Spring Festival.

New energy vehicle market with Chinese characteristics

China's new energy vehicle market is very special, and users of China's new energy vehicles are also a relatively special group.

In the United States, new energy vehicles are aimed at high-end consumer groups. According to 2016 sales data, the top three models are Tesla Model S, Chevrolet Volt, Tesla Model X, and the lowest price Chevrolet Volt. About $34,000, and Tesla is more than $100,000.

At the electric vehicle hundred people meeting a few days ago, Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, said that the main market for new energy vehicles is to limit the purchase of cities. That is to say, consumers buy new energy vehicles not because of new energy vehicles. It is due to the limitation of the license plate.

In China, the models with higher sales volume are generally low-end models. The main consumer groups are mainly because there is no fuel vehicle license, and the high-end new energy vehicles market such as Tesla has a general performance.

From this point of view, the situation in China is very special. The restrictions on traditional fuel vehicle licenses have become a positive for new energy vehicles.

The author's point of view:

Looking at the world, no country or region does not need subsidies when promoting new energy vehicles. The immature technology, inconvenient use, and low cost performance have all become relatively large in the promotion stage of new energy vehicles. The problem is that there is a need to have a balance between the urgent need to promote new energy vehicles at the government level and the near-forced choice of new energy vehicles at the market level. This balance must be technology.

The scale effect is extremely important for the automotive industry. Only by accelerating the research and development of new energy vehicle technologies, reducing the cost of new energy vehicles, and accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure can we improve product quality and quickly promote new energy vehicles.

At present, the author predicts that subsidies will have a certain impact in the short term, but due to factors such as restrictions and restrictions, this impact will not be too great. After a few years of mature products flooding into the market, the impact of subsidies will change. It is very small.

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